Sweet Magic

What is Sweet Magic?

Prediction market volume could soar to $10 trillion per year by 2035, compounding at a staggering annual rate of 70%, according to new research by Bernstein analysts.

Analyst Gautam Chhugani and team are forecasting $410 billion in yes/no exchange turnover this year, implying that if the $10 trillion estimate proves accurate, it’d represent a more than twentyfold increase from the 2026 tally.

The $10 trillion forecast also implies significant growth in just five years from what previously stood as some of the most optimistic 2030 projections. In April, Bernstein estimated prediction market volume will ascend to $1 trillion by 2030 while Bank of America said prediction markets will eventually grow to $1.1 trillion in yearly turnover. A July report from Macquarie analyst Chad Beynon included a $1.5 trillion annual volume forecast by 2030.

About Sweet Magic

Calvinayre.com Editor-in-Chief, Bill Beatty – the Michael Kinsley of the gambling world. Bill just possesses that same rare gift of creating great writers. You won’t meet a more genuine guy that Bill, and I’m incredibly grateful for the opportunities to learn so much about the casino business, writing and how I see the world.

Lead reporter Rebecca Liggero Fontana for taking me under her wing. You won’t meet a more generous soul than Becky. She shares this unbridled passion for the casino and tech space, that is just contagious and I’m glad I got to experience that unabashed joy for the gambling industry.

I want to thank Derek Tonin, my editor who I would speak with every day I worked at Calvinayre.com. I’m grateful for the opportunity I have had to work with Derek. He’s an editor who doesn’t shy away from the blunt criticism and its inspiring being on the other end of the call. He’s a guy you would want in the foxhole right next to you, someone who isn’t afraid to give the blunt truth and also celebrate the wins with you.

How to play Sweet Magic

A US listing can improve access to capital without making the underlying business more attractive. London has a capital-markets problem. Gambling has an investment problem. The two overlap, but they are not the same thing.

Frank Fantini, founder and publisher emeritus of Eilers-Fantini, thinks the change began before Covid. “There is a tendency to look at the world as pre-Covid and post-Covid,” he says. “But the decline in gaming began earlier than that with the slowdown in new jurisdictions and new projects.”

The US land-based casino market had begun to mature and the number of obvious new markets and projects was shrinking. Online gambling offered a new source of growth, particularly through the expansion of legal sports betting. That opportunity was quickly reflected in share prices.